Invasion of Ukraine, October SITREP (#234)
Today, October 4, 2022, is D+221 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post provides a strategic and tactical update, as well as continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of the entire Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,233 tanks since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the US lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~2+ brigade’s worth of tanks. The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians are losing 6.4 tanks per day.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. First, on September 21, Russia initiated a mobilization of 300,000 reservists to serve in the military. This was the first time since World War II that Russia had mobilized its reserves. Many of these reservists will end up fighting in Ukraine. Second, President Putin rattled his nuclear saber, saying in a speech, "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people - this is not a bluff… And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them." Finally, from September 23-27, 2022 Russia organized and supervised a referendum for the Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to exit Ukraine and become part of the Russian federation. As expected, over 90% of the sham referendum votes were for leaving Ukraine. Using the sham referendum as a pretext, on September 30, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. This is an area about the size of Hungary. In short, Russia’s mobilization, nuclear saber rattling, and annexation are all efforts to achieve their strategic objectives.
As many of you read in the Kharkiv Counterattack post, Ukraine launched a division+ sized counterattack on September 4, 2022 and has regained a significant amount of territory east of Kharkiv while destroying lots of Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. There appears to be more counterattacks developing which could regain significant territory around Kherson.
Here is a map so you can better see the change in territory in the last month. It appears that Ukraine has seized the initiative on the battlefield while Russia is trying to change the calculus off of the battlefield.
Update on the Kkarkiv Counterattack
How does the US Army define a counterattack? A counterattack is an “attack by part or all of a defending force against an enemy attacking force, for such specific purposes as regaining ground lost, or cutting off or destroying enemy advance units, and with the general objective of denying to the enemy the attainment of the enemy’s purpose in attacking. In sustained defensive operations, it is undertaken to restore the battle position and is directed at limited objectives.” In the Kharkiv counterattack, the Ukraine military counterattacked to regain lost ground, as well as cut off or destroy Russian units.
@JominiW excellent map of the Kharkiv Counterattack
Assessment
So how would military professionals assess the success of the Kharkiv counterattack? There are two methods either by terrain or casualties inflicted and taken. Here is a short look at both methods.
Terrain: In August, I assessed that “At the beginning of the war, Russia controlled 7.1% of Ukrainian territory or 43,133 km2. This territory was seized in the 2014-2015 Donbas war. Since February 24, 2022, Russia has seized an additional 81,867 km2 of Ukrainian territory — all-in-all, 125,000 km2 of Ukraine is occupied by Russia. This is approximately 20.7% of ALL of Ukraine (Ukraine was approximately 603,550 km2 pre-2014).” The Kharkiv counterattack retook 10,608 km2 of occupied Ukrainian terrain or 1.76% of Ukrainian territory. Russia still occupies ~114,392 km2 of Ukraine or 18.95%.
Russian Losses: In the last month, according to the Oryx Website, Russian forces have lost:
234x T-72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
312x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
33x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
105x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
12x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
92x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned
This is the equivalent to the Russians having 10x BTGs completely destroyed during the Kharkiv counterattack.
Total Russian BDA (As of October 3, 2022 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures losses from February 24 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,242x T-72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (234 ⬆️ — all change numbers since September 5, 2022)
Average of 5.5x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
1,758x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (312 ⬆️ )
Average of 7.9x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
218x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (33 ⬆️ )
455x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (105 ⬆️ )
104x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (12 ⬆️ )
395x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (92 ⬆️)
Ukrainian BDA (As of October 3, 2022 at 1500 EDT the Oryx Website)
So far, according to Oryx, Ukrainian forces have lost:
274x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 22 since 5 SEP)
Average of 1.2x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
387x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 41 since 5 SEP)
133x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 8 since 5 SEP)
38x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 3 since 5 SEP)
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, Indirect Fire Assets
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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Use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.