Invasion of Ukraine, September SITREP (#230)
Today, September 6, 2022, is D+194 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post provides a strategic and tactical update, as well as continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of the entire Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,008 tanks since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the US lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in 11 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed. The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee. At the strategic level, not much has changed.
Here is Jomini of the West’s (Twitter @JominiW) latest map of the current situation (August 14, 2022). As he states, “The first half of August has seen an emerging shift in the strategic initiative moving decidedly away from the Russia to that of Ukraine. With fall fast approaching the next several weeks may prove as critical as the early days of the war.”
Tactical Assesment
The Ukrainian military for the past several weeks has conducted shaping operations against the Russian forces in Kherson. What are shaping operations? In this case, shaping operations are designed to set the conditions for success for a future offensive operation. In essence, Ukraine has used long-range artillery, special operations forces, UAVs, and partisans to attack Russian headquarters, artillery, ammunition depots, and supply depots. More importantly, Ukraine attacked and destroyed parts of the two bridges across the Dnipro River. Russia has to repair the bridges or supply its forces with its wet gap crossing capabilities (see below for an update). It is worth watching the fight in Kherson for the next month to see if Ukraine can trap, capture, or destroy the Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro.
Total Russian BDA (As of September 5, 2022 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures losses from February 24 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,008x T-72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (92 ⬆️ — all change numbers since August 1, 2022)
Average of 6.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
1,446x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (157 ⬆️ )
Average of 9.1x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
185x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (6 ⬆️ )
350x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (21 ⬆️ )
92x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (2 ⬆️ )
303x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (31 ⬆️)
The war has evolved into a war of an attrition — or an artillery slugfest. We talked about indirect fire assets (Ukraine SITREP, D+124 + Indirect Fire) two months ago. Next month I’ll update the Russian losses of indirect fire assets and helicopters. Check back in 4 weeks!
Ukrainian BDA (As of September 5, 2022 at 1500 EDT the Oryx Website)
So far, according to Oryx, Ukrainian forces have lost:
252x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 20 since 1 AUG)
Average of 1.6x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
346x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 72 since 1 AUG)
125x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 13 since 1 AUG)
35x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 7 since 1 AUG)
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, Indirect Fire Assets
Invasion of Ukraine, Air Assault
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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Use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.