Invasion of Ukraine, April 2023 SITREP (#259)
Today, April 4, 2023, is D+403 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This is the 32nd in my series on blog posts on the war — see all the war in Ukraine blog posts here. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post updates the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment for the month of March 2023 and does a deep dive on Russian Tank losses.
One takeaway — as the meat grinder of the war in Ukraine continues, March was a big month for vehicle losses on the Russian side.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,906 tanks (116 since the last blog post — more than what Russia lost in February) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~9+ brigade’s worth of tanks (21 brigades worth of tanks in total). The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 (343 Days) the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 4.6 tanks per day in Ukraine in the last 30 days and 4.7 tanks per day since the war began.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. The Russians continue their offensive to seize the town of Bakhmut with little success. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics with a combination of UAVs, long-range rockets, and sabotage to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one we saw in Kharkiv in September.
At the strategic level, the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. A war of attrition is a military strategy that aims to wear down an opponent's strength and resources over time, rather than achieving a quick and decisive victory. It involves a prolonged period of conflict in which both sides engage in a series of small-scale battles and skirmishes, in an effort to inflict as many casualties as possible on the enemy while minimizing one's own losses.
The goal of a war of attrition is to gradually weaken the opponent's ability to fight, by draining their manpower, supplies, and morale. This can be achieved through a variety of tactics, such as siege warfare, guerrilla tactics, and defensive strategies that aim to outlast the enemy's attacks.
Total Russian BDA (As of April 1, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,906x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (116 ⬆️ — all change numbers sinceMarch 6, 2023)
Average of 4.7x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,785x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (165 ⬆️ )
Average of 6.9x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
298x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (12 ⬆️ )
752x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (47 ⬆️ )
145x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (9 ⬆️ )
583x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (5 ⬆️)
A Deeper Dive on Russian Tanks
In 2022, the Military Balance stated that there were 3,417 tanks in service in the Russian Army the previous year — 2,420 T-72s, 580 T-80s, and 417 T-90s. It is estimated that Russia produces 150 new tanks per year — so after the last 13 months 163 tanks should have rolled off the production line. I captured the 163 new tanks in the unknown category. So, all-in-all, the Russian Tank Fleet was approximately 3,580 tanks strong.
The T-72, T-80, and T-90 are all main battle tanks developed by the Soviet Union/Russia. The T-72 was introduced in the early 1970s and was widely used by the Soviet Army and its allies. The T-72 was the second Russian tank (T-64 was first) to use an autoloader for the main gun. The autoloader helped the tank keep a smaller profile. The T-80 was introduced in the late 1970s and was the first Soviet tank to use a gas turbine engine, which provided higher mobility and power. The T-90 is a more modern tank introduced in the 1990s and features a more powerful engine, improved armor, and advanced fire control systems.
According to Oryx website, over the past year in combat the Russian Army had 1,906 tanks destroyed, damaged, or captured — they lost 52% of their active tank fleet in 13 months of combat.
Russian Tank Losses in Ukraine — February 2022 - March 2023
Ukrainian BDA (As of April 1, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
489x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 19 since 6 MAR.)
Average of 1.2x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
835x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 31 since 6 MAR.)
291x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 28 since 6 MAR)
74x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 2 since 6 MAR)
For More Information on the Conflict:
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.