Invasion of Ukraine, March 2023 SITREP (#255)
Today, March 7, 2023, is D+375 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. It is hard to believe that the war has gone on for a year. And that this is the 31st in my series on blog posts on the war — see all the war in Ukraine blog posts here. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post updates the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment for the month of February 2023, changes in territorial control, and does a deep dive on Russian Tank losses.
Two takeaways — as the meat grinder of the war in Ukraine continues, February was a big month for vehicle losses on the Russian side and Ukraine recaptured 80km2 of territory.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,790 tanks (117 over the last 30 days — more than what Russia lost in January) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~8+ brigade’s worth of tanks (20 brigades worth of tanks in total). The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 (343 Days) the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 3.9 tanks per day in Ukraine in the last 30 days and 4.8 tanks per day since the war began.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. The Russians continue their offensive to seize the town of Bakhmut. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics with a combination of UAVs, long-range rockets, and sabotage to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one we saw in Kharkiv in September.
Jomini of the West (@JominiW) is back on Twitter in 2023 with his outstanding maps and summary of the strategic situation. Take a look at the strategic picture as of February 21, 2023. As Jomini states “The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold.”
Total Russian BDA (As of March 6, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,790x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (117 ⬆️ — all change numbers since February 7, 2023)
Average of 4.8x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,620x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (126 ⬆️ )
Average of 7.0x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
286x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (18 ⬆️ )
705x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (39 ⬆️ )
136x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (5 ⬆️ )
578x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (27 ⬆️)
A Deeper Dive on Russian Tanks
In 2022, the Military Balance stated that there were 3,417 tanks in service in the Russian Army the previous year — 2,420 T-72s, 580 T-80s, and 417 T-90s. The T-72, T-80, and T-90 are all main battle tanks developed by the Soviet Union/Russia. The T-72 was introduced in the early 1970s and was widely used by the Soviet Army and its allies. The T-72 was the second Russian tank (T-64 was first) to use an autoloader for the main gun. The autoloader helped the tank keep a smaller profile. The T-80 was introduced in the late 1970s and was the first Soviet tank to use a gas turbine engine, which provided higher mobility and power. The T-90 is a more modern tank introduced in the 1990s and features a more powerful engine, improved armor, and advanced fire control systems. According to Oryx website, over the past year in combat the Russian Army had 1,790 tanks destroyed, damaged, or captured — they lost 52% of their 2021 active tank fleet in just over a year in combat.
Russian Tank Losses in Ukraine — February 2022 - March 2023
Ukrainian BDA (As of March 6, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
470x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 11 since 7 FEB.)
Average of 1.3x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
804x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 25 since 7 FEB.)
263x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 52 since 7 FEB)
72x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 6 since 7 FEB)
Territory
Before 2014, the country of Ukraine was 603, 550 km2 in size. Russia captured 43,133 km2 in the 2014-2015 war. Russia current occupies 105,032 km2 of Ukrainian territory or 17.4%. Ukraine holds 498,518 km2. Ukraine recaptured 80 km2 of territory in February 2023.
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.