Invasion of Ukraine, September 2023 SITREP (#281)
Today, September 5, 2023, is D+557 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This is the 37th in my series on blog posts on the war — see all the war in Ukraine blog posts here. This is the next to last blog post I am doing on the War in Ukraine since the Oryx Website announced that they would no longer be crowd sourcing the Battle Damage of Russian and Ukrainian equipment on October 1, 2023. Hard to believe that I have been writing about a war in the 21st century for over 18 months. But without a reliable crowd sourced battle damage assessment, I am unwilling to comment on the war.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 2,274 tanks (101 since the last blog post — more than what Russia lost in July) since the war began.
Strategic Update
Russian wars rarely end quickly. In World War I Russia fought on the side of the Allied Powers from August 1914 through November 1917. In World War II, the Soviet Union fought first on the side of the Axis Powers and then with the Allied Powers from September 1939 through September 1945. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan 1from December 1979 through February 1989. The Russians fought major combat operations in the second Chechen War from August 1999 through April 2000. And finally, Russia has been fighting in Ukraine since February 2014 and then reinvigorated the war with the invasion in February 2022.
When will it end? I don’t know and I don’t think any expert has any better shot at predicting the war’s termination. When this war started in February 2022, I didn’t believe it would last longer than a year. I clearly was wrong about that prediction.
As the war drags on, it is worth asking what is happening right now? The Russo-Ukrainian war is occurring on five fronts. The first is in the south where Ukraine has launched its counter-offensive using a “bite and hold” tactics to slowly gain terrain and force the Russians out of their defensive positions. In the north, Ukraine is fighting a defensive campaign where they are holding their ground against the Russian offensive in the Luhansk province. Ukraine is conducting a defensive campaign against Russian long range strikes, while at the same time executing their own offensive campaign of deep strikes using aerial drones deep into Russian territory at logistics hubs and road networks and maritime drones in the Black Sea. Finally, Ukraine is conducting global strategic influence operations to degrade Russian influence and garner support and weapons for the fight.
It is tough to tell how well or poorly the war is going. The only reliable data has been the open source destroyed and damaged vehicles provided by Oryx. But with that drying up in October, the war will be even more opaque. On September 2nd, @WarMapper stated that Ukraine recaptured 35 km2 of territory in August. However, Russia continues to occupy 17.49% of Ukraine — approximately 105,000 km2 of pre-war Ukraine (603,550 km2). To contextualize this for my American readers, pre-war Ukraine was slightly smaller than the states of Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Russia occupies Ukrainian territory about the size of the state of Kentucky.
Both sides have had to fight a ground campaign without air superiority, something that the United States hasn’t had to face since the Korean War. The network of civilian and military sensors, linked to artillery and fixed and rotary wing assets operating behind the front lines has enabled both sides to quickly identify, target, and destroy each others forces. As you will see below in this month’s battled damage assessment the Russians have lost 2,274 tanks and Ukraine has lost 631 tanks since the beginning of the war. The Ukrainian battlefield is very lethal.
As the war drags on, the Ukrainian military has proved time and again that one of their biggest strength is their ability to adapt. From drones, to western tanks, to infantry fighting vehicles, to artillery, to anti-armor weapons, and to missiles. the Ukrainian military has figured out ways to get them into the fight and give themselves an advantage., However, what has become clear this summer is that western style combined arms operations at the battalion and brigade level are too complex for the Ukrainian military. One commentator has argued that Ukraine lacks the staff system at battalion and brigade level to pull off combined arms operations. Another take away for the American military is that exporting the American way of war is difficult for all but a few country’s militaries to emulate.
Total Russian BDA (As of September 4, 2023 at 1500 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
2,274x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (101 ⬆️ )
Average of 4.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
3,292x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (136 ⬆️ )
340x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (13⬆️ )
1057x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (75 ⬆️ )
193x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (7 ⬆️ )
695x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (24 ⬆️)
Ukrainian BDA (As of September 4, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
631x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 39)
Average of 1.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
1158x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 117)
418x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 40)
88x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 1)
For More Information on the Conflict:
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your group or company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical and strategic implications. In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.